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Ideas

The backlog, one page per idea (sidebar, or the index below). Every idea page carries: hypothesis, expected effect, cost, cheapest falsification, and the dated record of everything that has happened to it since. Seeded 2026-08-05 from charter §8 (which distills the mainline ledger, docs/architecture.md §7–8). Status tags: queued / screening / running / confirmed / falsified / parked.

This page is the index: what is hot right now vs what is on ice. It is updated whenever an idea moves (the per-idea page is the record; the line here is the hook). Index last updated 2026-08-13.

Hot — actively pursued

  • ar-draws #19 AR sampled-draws eval — screening. The AR side of the draws fairness programme. draws10_t1 read out 2026-08-07: all three pre-registered expectations met (Δ_AR −0.145, ~9× smaller than the flow gain — the mean-collapse shape). T-sensitivity dT table banked 23:09Z same day (record-only): monotone in T — 6.50/6.57/6.78/7.18 at T=0.5/0.7/1.0/1.3 on the q4 rows; the T=1.3 asymmetry prior confirmed, primary stays T=1.0. Molmo2 arm READ OUT 08-08 07:2xZ, all expectations met: Δ_AR −0.154 [CI −0.195, −0.113] — the mean-collapse shape replicated on a second AR trunk (AR-100k was −0.145); draws10_t1 5.8492/1.9736 → leaderboard row 9, no overtake of the flow band; execution oracles byte-green. Decode microbench rows measured same window (box H100): greedy 143.8/678.1, draws10 1191.2/6291.3 ms — row 8’s mtime caveat retired. Lit (08-08, steering III): SDN (2606.14084) — a judge-free per-step noise selector whose smoothness-only ablation carries most of its +18 pp real-robot gain; jerk-pick is a pure function of our banked draw stacks → record-only ceiling-ladder read EXECUTED same session: flow fresh-noise NULL on every diagnostic (agreement at the 10% null, −2.3% of the oracle gap; ODE draws uniformly smooth), AR real-but-small and T-monotone (5.6/7.5/20.9% of the gap at T=0.5/0.7/1.3, Spearman +0.36); never approaches mean-of-N — family decodes stand. Molmo2 stack half at the #19 landing. Lit 0816 (ActionCache, 2607.06370): the banked “cheap-draws cost model” hook corrected — top-1 retrieval collapses the draw distribution rather than amortizing N draws; our draws economics unchanged. Lit 0817 (Reflex + Compression Gap): the cost model splits — trunk prefill is per-decision (timestep-invariant, shared by all K draws), marginal draw = expert-only FLOPs; and the mean-collapse asymmetry gains a weak consistent-with rhyme (continuous heads pass encoder gains an 80-bit codebook blocks — tiny non-VLA single-seed study, our AR bit budget likely escapes the bound).
  • seam-screen #4 Stage-2 attachment seam — decided 2026-08-09 (memo): the frozen default stands — sequential hard-freeze is the attachment recipe for the Molmo2 trunk class; KI-joint closed-unmeasured (owner cost-killed K at ~4160; F panel 9.4157 beat state-copy by 2.35, 8 matched probes show no K edge, measured 4.11× step cost, production frozen-first votes). Δ_seam@3750 rescue read priced ~2.5 GPU-h (own pre-reg). Open remnants: arm 1 depth-of-reads, F-then-joint rung — pre-reg DRAFT posted 2026-08-09: J (unfrozen, no stop-grad, CE rider, from the banked F@10k expert) vs F2 (frozen continuation control), matched +5k, committed ~32 GPU-h ceiling 35, conditional 10k extension; instrument LANDED 08-09 15:0xZ (composite materializer + --joint-unfrozen-seam escape + AR-view compat, 12 oracles) — finalizes on owner go alone, venue ~08-12 post-adamc-endpoint. New 2026-08-09 (LP-FT, owner a(t)/b(t) steering): the rung’s THIRD same-shape citation and the first with a matched frozen control AND a mechanism theorem — feature distortion is front-loaded while the head is uninformed; align the head on frozen features first, then unfreeze (+1 ID / +10 OOD vs constant-schedule FT). Maps: expert=head, taps=features, F=LP phase; silent on F-vs-K itself (K’s stop-grad blocks the distortion channel); prices the rung’s ordering + the compute-Pareto case for cheap-a=0-steps-first. Draft note: joint phase should start from the CONVERGED F expert, not a fixed step count. New 2026-08-09 later session (RDT2, 2602.03310): a production vote for the F shape hours before the Δ_seam read — RDT2’s 7B recipe is AR-first (protects VLM knowledge, ablated) + flow expert on a FROZEN backbone + 1-step distill, no joint stage; ledger context only, the frozen read is untouched. New 2026-08-09 fresh sweep (Z-1, 2606.31846): a FOURTH same-shape vote with a sharper second half — production GRPO on a flow VLA keeps the trunk frozen by default and unfreezes it per-task only on measured diagnostics (SFT success, early expert-only progress, rollout failure modes); joint as conditional escalation, not a scheduled phase — exactly the fjoint rung’s conditional-extension clause (evidence thin: one task, no final-number decomposition). New 2026-08-09 lit 0815 (Decoupled Action Expert, 2511.12101): the seam question’s capacity axis measured — a 5M MLP denoiser pretrained on observation-free kinematics data, then frozen with only the conditioning pathway retrained, matches a 244M U-Net (LIBERO 84.7 vs 79.3; 84.2 with the freeze), so the F arm is not expert-capacity-starved and a J-beats-F2 read should be read as trunk-representation adaptation, not expert relief; their conditioning ablation — cross-attention conditioning collapses under backbone freezing (76.4→5.9) while modulation survives — makes the banked F@10k expert task/trunk-entangled capital, not portable. Framing caveats loud: testbed is Diffusion Policy (no VLM anywhere), and the freeze direction is inverted vs our seam — capacity datum only, silent on frozen-vs-joint. T1 rung READ OUT 2026-08-10 (results): that prior CONFIRMED on our stack at the pinned band — Δ_capacity@10k = +0.188 [+0.155, +0.221], tiny h256 (86.8M) vs F h1024 (367.5M), fully matched on the frozen 60k trunk; the width cost is real but small (+2.0%, late-horizon), so expert sizing is a cost knob, not a risk knob. Lit 0816 (VLA-GSE, 2605.06175 + LWD): a third attachment pole — spectral-init trunk adapters beat full FT on robustness at 2.51% params (the SVD init carries it: Gaussian-init lands below LoRA); cheapest probe = PiSSA-vs-LoRA-vs-nothing on tap layers. Plus the sixth production frozen vote (LWD’s fleet RL trains only the flow expert). fjoint frozen reads untouched. Owner MolmoAct2 deep dive (post): the strongest joint-pole vote yet — insulated post-train then unfreeze-at-finetune, expert-only costs −4.15 LIBERO vs full FT (caveat: from a jointly post-trained init, not a converged F); predicts fjoint > F2. Per-layer KV beats hidden-state +1.9. Lit 0819 (CL triangle): two free fjoint riders — per-layer weight-delta effective-rank/nuclear-norm drift instrument (full-FT 324.7/4.31 vs LoRA 27.5/0.48; computable from saves we already keep) + a LoRA-joint candidate first rung; downside bound: forgotten competence recovers in <10% of original steps — a bad joint phase is recoverable, not a lost trunk.
  • new-trunks #17 New trunks / architectures — standing owner mandate. Molmo2-4B AR 40k ENDPOINT READ OUT 2026-08-08 (results): BEATS — 6.0079/2.1871 vs the E2B own-topology control 7.7966/3.9422, paired −1.717 [CI −1.80, −1.63] on 17,204 core frames; frozen decision executes, Molmo2 is the phase-2 flow-trunk candidate (the #4 attach screen holds this AR-adapted prefix frozen). At 40k it sits 0.21 behind AR-100k’s greedy at 2.5× fewer steps. Endpoint probe 6.2075@40000 = the vu5k amendment’s frozen-sanity bar input. New 2026-08-07 (owner question): the SigLIP-unfreeze evidence got its own slice (vision-encoder-freeze — both poles are real: unfreeze wins adaptation regimes, freeze/anchor wins OOD retention; our rung sits in the adaptation regime; recipe prior = full-FT vision at low LR, never LoRA-on-SigLIP); vision-unfreeze pre-reg DRAFT now at the owner-agreed amendment-3 design (warm-start two-arm vu5k: frozen-continue vs thawed-continue from the 40k endpoint, 5k steps, 0.3× LR reheat, vision LR 6e-6 tied to text; superseded 10k-from-scratch form recorded in its §8); finalization PREP landed 08-07 (485194b: byte-audit clean, both arm launchers + prepared babysit entries) — execution is launch-only after the 150-step memory smoke + amendment post + owner go, window post-attach-screen. New 2026-08-09 (VLM4VLA, 9-trunk sweep): strong external prior FOR the thawed arm — frozen vision encoder loses 1–3 pts uniformly across 9 trunks × 3 sims (name in the finalization amendment); ALSO a trunk-shopping warning: VQA capability→control correlation collapses off-Calvin (r≈−0.36 Simpler, −0.19 Libero) — trunk swaps get priced by panel screens only, never benchmark cards. Not compute-matched; suggestive, not priced. New 2026-08-09 (radar hooks cleared, VEGA + HyperVLA): VEGA = the third pole between freeze and thaw — a 3D-aware-teacher alignment aux at the encoder output (projector discarded at inference) substitutes for unfreezing when the missing ingredient is spatial structure (frozen-FiT3D ≈ unfrozen-FiT3D probe); banked as vu5k interpretation lever + named cheap escalation if thawed wins. HyperVLA = the inference-efficiency pole for the trunk ledger (0.1M generated policy/episode, 4 ms/step, sim-only, 2024-baseline caveats loud) + the generated-update normalization design rule; radar-only, changes no queued arm. New 2026-08-09 later session (Spatial Forcing, VEGA’s baseline examined): the aux pole gains a second recipe — LLM-layer-24 alignment where VGGT works as teacher (vs collapsing at encoder depth: teacher×depth interact) — and its real headline is convergence, ~3× fewer iterations to matched LIBERO success + 25.8 pp at 5% data; a fewer-steps lever for the throughput accounting, teacher overhead unreported. SF may fit single-tower Molmo2 better than the VEGA recipe; escalation order unchanged (VEGA won head-to-head). New 2026-08-09: LAFP (page, 2606.10517) fills the latent-action-from-video pole of the family map (LAOM + flow-in-latent beats BC on multimodal envs; Procgen only, skim-to-place) — the documented recipe if unlabeled-video pretraining ever enters via the RDT2/VISTA data premise. New 2026-08-09 fresh sweep (weight-decay correction, 2512.08217, AdamC’s direct successor): the live adamc_100k grad-norm watch gets its interpretive frame — expect flat grad/weight norms through decay but ~nil final-loss effect (AdamC 76.98 vs AdamW 76.92 ViT-S/16); our head-exclusion partition validated in two papers; our 10%-of-peak LR floor sits on the paper’s recommended side (λ ∝ γ avoids terminal weight-norm suppression); caveat banked — AdamC may not reach steady state in a 100k window, so slow weight-norm drift ≠ falsification. New 2026-08-09 lit 0812b (DFM-VLA + OneWM-VLA): head-axis map completes to four quadrants — DFM-VLA (discrete tokens + whole-sequence refinement, LIBERO-Plus 77.8 vs π0.5 75.7) pairs with HiFlow to show commitment, not discreteness, is the expensive property, measured from both directions; and the predictive-supervision pole gains its cheap self-anchored variant (one pooled token/frame jointly denoised with actions, 14.7M LoRA, monotone bandwidth sweep, unsupervised-scaffold-worse-than-nothing ablation) — the plausible aux-rider entry for a trained trunk. New 2026-08-09 lit 0813 (Muon-SW, 2607.23777 + AsyncVLA, 2511.14148): the adamc watch’s weight-norm frame lands — corrected decay’s norm target is LR-independent, so expect plateau-then-flat (peak-then-decline = the uncorrected signature); λ ∝ η now has three independent derivations; alignment-cosine probe banked as a free second opinion. And the commitment axis gets its within-model intervention: re-noising low-confidence tokens + regenerating with trusted context is worth ~5× extra denoise compute, 2/3 of it with a coin-flip selector — revisability itself carries the effect (must be trained in: bolt-on collapses 70.8 → 7.3). New 2026-08-09 lit 0814 (Hyperball, 2606.16899 + Anytime, 2602.03702): the adamc watch goes two-sided — R⋆ ∝ √(η/λ) gives plateau-then-flat a third independent derivation AND a grad-norm-side test (corrected group grads should stay flat through decay; climb ∝ 1/√η with sagging norms = uncorrected), two free offline probes banked (‖∇L‖·‖W‖ constancy, stable rank), and the decay-inert trap named (λ=1e-5 on a pretrained init may never reach equilibrium); plus a chart-note — mid-run probe reads understate decayed-model quality (cosine’s endpoint is largely implicit averaging). And X-Tokenizer adds the commitment axis’s zero-test-time-commitment corner (tokens as pure training signal, flow head executes). New 2026-08-09 lit 0815 (Weight-norm criticality, 2607.21005 + Weibull weight-scale, 2606.19367): the adamc watch gains its failure-side frame and a measured disambiguator — decay+normalization can drag scale-invariant norms toward a derived floor c⋆ = √(ηρ/2) where sharpness (∝ 1/‖u‖²) spikes the loss (MLP blocks carry the blow-up); the named failure signature is joint: per-group norm decline + that group’s grad climb + co-timed train spikes, all three series already recorded. The decay-inert trap flips valence — spikes need λ ~0.01–1, so λ=1e-5 sits in the safe corner — and stops being unmeasurable: the three-force decomposition (alignment ≈88–94% of the norm-force budget, spline-recovered at 92–94% accuracy from sparse weights-only checkpoints; decay exact from our known λ_t·η_t schedule; injection ~4% residual, not recoverable) turns per-matrix |F_decay|/|F_align| across the ~20 banked 5k saves into a number — ratio ≪1 = decay inert, →O(1) into the cosine tail = the AdamC balance is real. Bonus: the Muon-SW alignment-cosine probe becomes computable weights-only. Two offline probes join the endpoint list (distance-to-criticality margin; force chronicle). Lit 0816 (WD-plasticity, 2602.11137): pretrain λ 0.5–1.0 beats 0.1 downstream and base loss under-predicts finetune quality — weight finetuned probes in trunk selection; layer-wise linear-probe separability banked as a cheap plasticity instrument. The λ∝η framing is analogy only (hook corrected: our 1e-5 is 4 orders below their range). Owner MolmoAct2 deep dive (post): Molmo2-ER — our trunk family, embodied-specialized, released — lifts LIBERO-Long +6.0 at fixed everything-else; frozen-ER-swap under the F recipe is the cheapest externally-priced trunk arm we have. 621M expert on a 4B trunk = production capacity anchor. Lit 0818 (Qwen-RobotManip + plasticity-at-scale): a fourth attachment pole (cross-attn to hidden states, alternating visual/language per block, ~1:40 expert:trunk, joint-trained with λ=0.1 aux LM loss on a 9:1 mix — the priced anti-forgetting recipe if we ever unfreeze; no frozen ablation, no vote against F) + benchmark-saturation seconds VLM4VLA from the action side (only OOD suites separate pretraining). Plasticity hook corrected: its WD clause just cites 2602.11137 (not new evidence); durable export is negative — dormant-unit/param-norm/ attention-entropy proxies all failed to track onset; behavioral fixed-budget probes only. Lit 0819 (CL triangle): the unfreeze price list — zero-replay sequential FT forgets catastrophically at every scale tested (the “resistant” paper’s own zero-replay rows: NBT 0.56–0.76); real-robot π0.5 full FT loses BWT −81 in 4k steps; episode replay ρ 0.02–0.2 @ ~20% of batches fully fixes it. Vision full-FT inside a constrained trunk is π0’s own default — vu5k arms stand; any LANGUAGE unfreeze pre-registers LoRA-on-LM + a replay-like anchor (the banked 9:1 + λ0.1 LM-aux rider exceeds the sufficient dose). OWNER STEERING 22:14Z 08-09: proposed 60k run init from Molmo2-ER (drop-in verified — configs/manifests identical) + rig data from step 0, killing adamc_100k; owner go 22:36Z, LAUNCHED 22:53Z as fontaine_molmo2_er_60k_ddp4 (endpoint ~08-11 ~12:00Z; ER-init delta vs the 40k curve = primary read). Lit 0820 (H2R emergence): second production datapoint that VLM-benchmark inheritance ≠ robot-pretraining diversity — π0.5+ego’s base-VLM condition gains ~zero from human-video co-training; an embodied (ER-class) trunk is the precondition, strengthening the live er_60k arm’s rationale beyond its panel delta.
  • aux-subgoals #6 Aux attribution — confirmed (aux HELPS actions, +0.462 cost when off). CONSOLIDATED REPORT 2026-08-09 (Conditioning on words, owner ask 13:21Z 08-08): the whole thread — aux attribution, rung (a), fields tables both trunks, mined ambiguous frames, (b)/(b′) ladder + priced escalations — on one chart-led page. Rung (a) self-subgoal probe READ OUT 2026-08-08 (results): the slot is ALIVE — Δ_oracle −0.290 [CI −0.331, −0.225], 6× late-horizon, twice the AR draws-10 gain — but self-generated subgoals recover almost none of it (Δ_self −0.018, CI spans 0; no deployment win at 3× decode cost). Channel read significant: same text via suffix is +0.043 worse than the slot — generation quality (phase estimation), not the channel, is the bottleneck. Escalations (subgoal-draws selection first) each need a new pre-reg. Lit 0817 (ArmnetBench + SAFECAST): the failure-detection slot gets a public ground-truth eval corpus (2,288 labeled SO-101 failure rollouts, LeRobot-native) and a sharpened cheapest-next-step — the SAFE-substrate separability probe on our flow-expert hidden states vs those labels is now a go/no-go gate on the whole hidden-state-probe family (SAFECAST’s own flow-policy cells land below coin-flip; the strong numbers are AR-only). **Rung (b) PRE-REGISTERED 2026-08-08 (pre-reg): sample 9 subgoal candidates (greedy + 8 at T=1), condition on the self-certainty pick (frozen scorer, Self-Certainty page, 2502.18581) — plus a record-only oracle-similarity CEILING arm that bounds every scorer at this width and adjudicates no-diversity vs no-scorer if the falsifier fires; gate ≤ 6 GPU-h; execution queued behind the goldenticket R1 chain. Instrument LANDED oracle-green 08-08 03:5xZ (draws mode + SC-sufficient stats dump
    • both selection arms + read script w/ 11 abort branches; check.py 489) — only the GPU-side preflight oracles remain before launch.** New 2026-08-07 (radar, both papers announced same day — subgoal-sourcing page): two fresh directional priors before the read — HiRoC’s subgoal-source cold start (Δ_self ≤ Δ_oracle expected; its alignment-SFT is a new named escalation) and VLA-Talker’s inject-vs-supervise 15.9-pt gap (predicts the narrated arm is safe; tension with our aux-on result recorded + resolved on the page). New 2026-08-08 (slice while the arms decoded — runtime-plan-verification page): the escalation ladder above rung (a) priced with published numbers — SV-VLA’s cheap-gate-heavy-replan (verification without recovery crashes 90.9%→15.5%), VINE’s subgoal-draws width scaling (peak at K=4), Do-What-You-Say’s faithfulness gap (the execution-side noise our Δ_oracle/Δ_self split doesn’t price). New 2026-08-08 ~04:1xZ (targeted slice BEFORE the rung-(b) read — progress-from-logits page, TOPReward 2602.19313 + ProgVLA 2605.28231): escalation routing pre-mapped for a no-scorer verdict — (1) masked-contrast prerequisite VERIFIED MET (MG-Select masks text/state, never frames; our subgoal-masked reference = the planner-less path, trained at 50% dropout — correction banked on the self-certainty page); (2) history-conditioned planning is evidence-backed (TOPReward: phase zero-shot recoverable from a video prefix via one completion logit, incl. on Molmo2-8B; single frames are the measured rung-(a) bottleneck). Lane (a) verdict: nothing published beats SC label-free on open-ended text — the frozen scorer cell stands. New 2026-08-08 ~19:0xZ (slice while rung-2 stage-2 decoded — RoVer page, 2510.10975): the “scorer is the gap” escalation now has a priced recipe — a 0.2B PRM (40M trainable) trained offline from demos alone via anchor-centered preference pairs, no environment or success labels; its stated chunk–step mismatch limitation (gains go unstable on chunked policies — all of ours are) is pre-registered ammunition: any learned-verifier arm must score the chunk as the unit. ELASTIC (same slice) independently names verifier noise as THE parallel-scaling bottleneck — the Δ_ceil/Δ_bon split is built to price exactly that. Rung (b′) READ OUT 2026-08-09 (results): E6 FALSIFIED, adjudication NO-SCORER — SC pick is +0.210 [+0.113, +0.312] WORSE than greedy self head-to-head (and +0.142 worse than the bare baseline: it anti-selects), while the oracle ceiling is alive at −0.250 [−0.353, −0.148], concentrated late-horizon (−0.464 last-10%). Width is fine (eligible 8.06/9, 0 fallback rows); the scorer is the whole gap. SC is dead as the picker; scorer-side escalations (learned verifier per RoVer, probe ranker, or distilling the 4,298 dumped oracle-pick pairs) each need their own pre-reg. New 2026-08-09 (slice same session as the verdict — label-free selection signals, uPRM 2605.10158 + SDN 2606.14084): the scorer-rung design constraint is now published twice over — label-free signals work when they score the candidate SET jointly (uPRM batch-joint first-error inference beats supervised PRMs; SDN’s kNN density contrast vs masked decode), and per-candidate confidence is exactly the shape that failed here; a subgoal-scorer variant of masked-contrast is sketched on the page (one masked decode per frame + the K conditioned decodes any selection arm already pays; the planner-less path is the masked side). Audit catch recorded on the page: SDN’s jerk half was ALREADY executed 08-08 (jerkpick: flow null / AR 8% of the oracle gap, banked) — the physics-side selector is priced and is not the answer alone; the scorer rung choice is now RoVer-style supervised (4,298 in-domain pairs available) vs set-joint label-free. Rung (c) READ OUT 2026-08-09 (results): masked-contrast ANTI-SELECTS — (mc − self) +0.313 [CI +0.200, +0.429], worse than SC’s +0.210; capture fraction −1.73, late-horizon +0.385 (the ceiling’s slot, inverted), oracle agreement chance-level at 66% active picks. Informativeness is anti-correlated with quality: max-KL candidates are disruptive, not phase-right. Second strike ⇒ the pre-registered kill rule executed: the ZERO-TRAINING SCORER FAMILY IS CLOSED for this trunk — learned-verifier shapes need their own affirmative case. The ceiling itself stays alive (−0.250 vs bare). POST-MORTEM MAP READ 2026-08-09 (record-only, banked dump, addendum): KL is rank-NOISE, not a reversed compass — per-row Spearman(KL, err) +0.012 [−0.005, +0.029], oracle-best uniform on the axis (0.498 vs 0.5); the +0.313 harm is magnitude-driven (winner’s curse on a noisy axis, value-level rho +0.126). SC was the better axis all along (−0.030, CI < 0, oracle-best at its top 30% vs 12.6% null) but ~6× too weak for an argmax. Axes mutually uncorrelated (+0.032) — two independent failures. Calibration bar for any learned verifier: beat |rho| ≈ 0.03 by ~an order of magnitude. New 2026-08-09 lit 0812b (VLA-Corrector, 2607.01804): a drift-monitor verifier that escapes the closed candidate-scorer family on both axes (trained 40M from demos alone; judges temporal drift, not candidates) — two design constraints banked for any learned-verifier case: predict residuals not states, and keep the judge decoupled from the policy (+14.8 pp external vs internal head). Closed-loop only; parked on #16. New 2026-08-09 lit 0813 (three angles on the verifier ledger): AsyncVLA — dense per-token error labels beat trajectory-outcome labels 70.8 vs 64.6, and its relative-confidence blind spot is our anti-selection failure class; silent-failures — modality > capacity, final-state exteroception carries the precision signal (proprio’s 0.97 is a noiseless-sim artifact); StreamVLA — completion-anchored gating sidesteps the measured mid-execution phase bottleneck (τ-sweep flat 0.5→never-skip); refresh rule: event-triggered ≈ always-reason at half latency ≫ fixed schedule. New 2026-08-09 lit 0814 (VLA-FAIL, 2606.21386): a verifier mechanism class the kill rule doesn’t cover — last-layer Mahalanobis against demo statistics (zero training, fixed prior-noise feature pass, ~2 ms vs 32-sample baselines) is demo-anchored density, not policy self-report; LLMD-as-selector is the cheapest named affirmative-case arm (retro-computable on banked dumps once a feature-dump hook exists, own pre-reg required); caveat carried — its stated blind spot, confident coherent failure, is plausibly our ceiling’s class. New 2026-08-09 lit 0815 (Foresight, 2606.23085 — hook corrected loudly): NOT a current-phase affirmative case — it trains on success and failure rollouts (“task-level labels” means label granularity, not a demos-only diet), so it enters the ledger as the rig-phase supervised endpoint (teleop attempts + worked/didn’t tags = its full diet; LLMD keeps the cheapest-arm slot). Banked anyway: 0.78 balanced accuracy at an 8,557-step horizon (+0.14 over best baseline) from a 2-layer head on frozen action-conditioned world-model latents — third echo that decoupled features beat policy internals, sequence head mandatory (MLP near chance on real robots), an outcome-labels-suffice counterpoint to AsyncVLA’s dense-labels result; the time-varying conformal band (δ_t = μ_t + q̂σ_t, calibrated on successes only, anytime FPR ≤ α) is a borrowable no-failure-data upgrade for the VLA-FAIL recipe; cross-policy transfer is asymmetric (π₀.₅→ACT 0.94, ACT→π₀.₅ 0.56) — failure logs age across policy generations. Lit 0816 (FoMo-FD, 2607.27511): closest fit yet to the no-rollouts slot — a success-only flow world model scored by backward inverse transport detects 96.6% @1.3% FA (forward scoring: 52.2%); hook corrected: calibration needs ~19 successful deployed-policy rollouts per task (rig-day line item, not zero), and the wrist camera carries the result. Lit 0818 (ProbeAct, 2606.09740): hook corrected on both clauses (position regressor on 50k sim-oracle labels + hand-coded kinematic rules, zero detection metrics) — but the dissociation datum stands: the frozen VLM trunk decodes object position at R²=0.968 while flow cells probe below coin-flip elsewhere → the ArmnetBench separability gate gains a trunk-tap arm (probe Molmo2 residual taps AND flow-expert states; spatial pooling, shallow-mid layer sweep; flow-fails + trunk-passes still GOes). Lit 0819 (Squint + SO-101 benchmark): the gate gains a sim label-source (Squint rollouts = unlimited ground-truth labels; cross-check calibration vs ArmnetBench real labels — a two-sided test neither corpus supports alone) and a sharper claim target — execution labels saturate 91–100% in 2606.08881 (baselines the probe must beat: gripper-proprio + action-periodicity), the discriminative class is state mismatch (98→46% with trunk strength); 16 unlisted rollout_* datasets on the author’s Hub = candidate second corpus after a ~2–3 h self-labeling pass.
  • noise-draws #1 Noise-draw ensembling — flow mean-of-10 banked (5.365); batched draws merged 2026-08-07. GOLDEN-TICKET SCREEN R1+R2 READ OUT 2026-08-08 (results): tickets are REAL — R1 CONFIRM (sd 0.823 vs null line 0.0785, 12× the null; winner ticket 33), R2 REAL on 14,746 complement rows (paired −0.924 [CI −0.985, −0.866] vs stable-key; LARGER than the selection-biased probe delta): one fixed sha-pinned noise vector = 5.6468/1.8963 core-pooled, ~75% of the mean-of-10 gain at 1/10th the draws — leaderboard row 7. Effect DIRECTIONAL, not norm (ticket-33 norm rank 29/64, corr(norm,score) −0.05) — the LAFM/DSRL structured-noise premise showing up unprompted. SCREEN CLOSED 08-08 08:2xZ — R3 INTERESTING, 9× the band: mean-of-top-10 5.1847/1.3831 vs banked mean-of-10 5.3645/1.4242 (Δ −0.180, record-only; best chunk AND first numbers measured on this panel — row-seating needs the paired follow-up now folded into the queued noise-ladder pre-reg). R4a: ticket 33 argmin in 4.4% of 792 probe datasets (top-10 containment 29.8% ≈ 2× null; median cell 2 frames — selection-noise caveat). R4b: winner gain monotone in draw dispersion (−0.35 → −1.44 by quartile). Screen total ~5.55/6 GPU-h. The Rung-2 pre-reg FINALIZED 08-08 13:2xZ (pre-reg): stage 0 found a thin floor F=6 on banked data (split-half regret n=6 bin 2% under the permutation null; n=4–5 fail — the median-2-frame caveat was right), 97 qualifying datasets = 40.8% of panel core rows, 88/97 route away from ticket 33 (map sha 15d92935…). Stage-2 READ OUT 08-08 19:4xZ — FALSIFIED (results): Δ_route +0.129 [CI95 +0.060, +0.205] entirely ABOVE zero on the 6,014 held-out complement core rows (win table 34W/54L, sign p 0.042) — the in-sample −0.60 probe delta INVERTED out-of-sample; per-dataset argmin on ~6–20-frame cells memorizes its cell even past the F=6 permutation floor. Ticket 33 itself re-confirmed (routed-vs-stablekey −0.756; board row stays global t33). Rung CLOSED; measured prior inherited by every ladder rung above: specialization must prove held-out-row transfer AT SELECTION TIME. Record-only lead: routing wins chunk steps ~1–8, loses ~15+ — a chunk-position noise policy is a different, cheaper axis (no arm without its own pre-reg). Seating arm independent, in flight. noise-structure ladder (per-dataset tickets → LAFM priors → DSRL state-conditioned) has met its entry condition — each rung needs its own pre-reg. Lit (08-07, LAFM page): the noise-structure ladder above the screen is now mapped — searched ticket → per-dataset tickets → LAFM’s learned mode-prior library (2606.23420, training-time; +10.4 LIBERO-90 over FM at 110M) → state-conditioned noise (DSRL + 2026 kin, now read — noise-space-steering page): DSRL’s dual-critic RL-on-noise, LP-DS’s off-manifold drift diagnosis (trust-region clause banked for any CEM escalation; ‖ε‖ ≈ √300 shell), FRS’s reverse-ODE noise recovery + 10-demo DSBC distillation (also a #16 rig lever). R4 per-dataset argmin disagreement would be LAFM’s “fragmented action space” showing up in our data; the whole ladder stays gated on stage-1 R1/R2. Both banked hooks closed same day (part II — PAINT + UniSteer): a probeable prefix-locality property of our teacher noted (record-only), the per-step fixed-point inversion primitive is the numbers-backed default, no gate change. Lit (08-08, steering III): the per-dataset-tickets pre-reg inherits three published priors — 2603.11642’s variance decomposition (noise main effect 1.4%, context×noise interaction 39.4%, best-shared-noise optimal in 3.1% of contexts: per-dataset search aims at the interaction term); the channel exists because our Heun decode is path-intact (DDIM 0.96 vs DDPM 0.11 direction→jerk correlation — any sampler change re-tests the ladder); and chunk-boundary artifact is a named panel-blind unknown of ticket 33 (rollout-gated jerk read banked). Lit (08-08 ~19:0xZ, ELASTIC page, 2606.31132): a rung-3 candidate named — dispersion-gated draw allocation (full draws budget only where the banked R4b dispersion quartile says ensembling pays, 1 draw elsewhere); ELASTIC learns this allocation with per-task online RL and matches best-of-10 at 34% lower latency — our version is a zero-training offline re-read of banked dumps, gated on the rung-2 verdicts. Directed candidate expansion (RoVer, same slice) lands in noise space for us — prior art alongside LAFM/DSRL, not a new rung.

Standing

  • rig-benchmark #16 Few-shot rig-transfer benchmark — the north star; execution parked by owner (better rig data later), instruments banked. Short-term proxy: comm-holdout MAE + attribution. New 2026-08-07: the proxy itself got a lit slice (offline-validation — raw MSE measured at ρ −0.61 vs rollout success, sign flips exist); critical-frame re-pooling rung executed same-day — every published ranking holds on the critical pool, separation widens (results). Rig-time menu now four deep (noise-steering II): ticket → DSBC (10 demos) → UniSteer (teleop corrections→noise, 20%→90% in ~66 min, OOD-robust where DSRL isn’t) → DSRL (rewards). New 2026-08-09 (Hy-Embodied stack, 2606.14409): the weight-space pole of the post-SFT menu banked — FlowPRO preference RL (flow loss as implicit reward, intervention-and-rollback pairs, +6–12 pts over DAgger, retention UNMEASURED vs FlowDAgger’s 0.88-vs-−0.94) + the H=50 Bézier chunk-stitch deployment lever. New 2026-08-09 later session (async II + RDT2): TTFA accounting (E[react] = Δt_infer + ½·Δt_exec — the chosen execution horizon will dominate decode latency on the rig) + ABPolicy’s jerk instruments banked as bench design inputs; and the north-star premise gains its hours-scale existence proof — 10k h of robot-free UMI data transfers zero-shot cross-embodiment with a predictable data exponent (β≈0.23), though the zero-shot column needs a UMI-twin gripper the SO101 rig lacks. New 2026-08-09 fresh sweep (Z-1): the post-SFT menu’s RL pole gains a data-efficiency datum — +13.2 pts over SFT on 24 RoboCasa tasks from 1,199 public demos and sparse success rewards only (flow-SDE log-probs + task-wise GRPO); sim-only, zero compute accounting. New 2026-08-09 lit 0812b (π-StepNFT, 2603.02083): RL-pole entry 4 and the pole’s first measured IND-vs-OOD trade — critic-free step-wise contrastive on flow-SDE transitions matches PPO IND but beats it +11.1 pp OOD (semantic 49.1 vs 25.4); for the few-demo/shifted rig regime the trade favors critic-free. Pole stays sim-first (8×H100, co-located rollouts, success flags). New 2026-08-09 lit 0813 (SA-VLA, 2602.00743 + silent-failures, 2606.03134): RL-pole entry 5 measures the first negative sign — sparse-reward PPO lands below no-RL (77.5 vs 81.0 OOD); published gains are protective machinery (dense privileged rewards, frozen spatial injection, learned exploration noise); and a bench constraint for the north star — telemetry success flags run 32–48% false-positive in clean sim, so binary-success RL and any rig bench need an exteroceptive label audit (final-frame check is the cheapest sufficient form). New 2026-08-09 lit 0814 (FPO, 2510.09976, ICRA 2026): RL-pole entry 6 fills the missing gradient route — likelihood-free PPO ratio from the CFM-loss change (no SDE, no BPTT); ALOHA ~40%→65%+ own-baseline sparse-reward sim; its ablation says the gradient route carries the method (−46 pp) while the critic ensemble is seasoning (−7 pp); third frozen-trunk vote; env/compute cost unreported, zero retention measurement. New 2026-08-09 lit 0815 (RedFlow, 2607.27782): RL-pole entry 7, the first fully offline + real-robot entry — failed deployment rollouts become action-level corrective supervision (progress-model advantage + context clustering, then attraction/suppression/redirection targets on the flow endpoint): real-world 56.7→74.7 avg across three AgileX tasks from 100–200 rollouts + binary outcomes, no envs, no teleop, no critic; matches PPO/GRPO/DDPO on LIBERO-Spatial at ~10× fewer samples. Re-prices the pole (parallel-env infra is no longer the universal entry fee) and bridges to the intervention levers — corrections without a human. Sharpest ablation repeats the protective-structure pattern: knowing which failures NOT to correct carries −11.5 avg alone. Caveats: retention unmeasured (FlowDAgger critique stands), deliberately weakened base policy, progress model unvalidated on rig scenes. Lit 0816 (LWD, 2605.00416): RL-pole entry 8, the fleet tier — 16 real robots, offline-to-online, frozen trunk + flow-expert-only updates; DIVL distributional critic carries +9.7/+16.7 long-horizon over expectile; QAM is adopted (Li & Levine), not theirs (hook corrected); offline column alone beats SFT 0.88 vs 0.76 but needs failure-containing buffers — success-only corpora collapse the signal. Lit 0817 (ArmnetBench + Legato): LWD’s failure-buffer prerequisite now has a public artifact on our embodiment (2,288 labeled failures, Apache 2.0, 7 policy families) — banked as the pole’s pre-rig calibration/eval corpus; completion time + boundary- overlap RMSE join the bench metric set (offline panels are blind to seam hesitation, Legato’s −20% lives there). Lit 0819 (Squint + SO-101 benchmark + CL triangle): the rollout-substrate blocker is mechanically gone — Squint ships an MIT SO-101 digital twin in ManiSkill3 (success predicates, arbitrary-res RGB, LeRobot-convention absolute-joint control, verified installable; 96.1→91.3% ranking-preserving sim→real on our exact arm), but its default visual world is far-OOD for our policies, so first use = relative screens + probe labels; #16 now owns a design problem, not an access problem. Preflighted 2026-08-14 (note): GO mechanically — 8 envs step headless CPU-only, pd_joint_pos is raw absolute-joint radians (hold drift 0.0, walk p50 track 0.014 rad), 224×224 is a sensor_configs kwarg, success + per-predicate info every step; costs: ~2-min install, 1.35 s/50-step episode wrist-RGB at the lavapipe CPU floor, one dual-camera subclass + a per-process CAMERA_TYPE constant of engineering; overlay silently needs rgb+segmentation. Tier decision stays with the wrist-transfer screen’s outcome. Bench anti-patterns banked from 2606.08881 (tasks into the 20–80% band, ≥50 trials/cell, pre-registered annotation protocol); rig-phase forgetting precedent from the CL triangle: rig FT must carry 229h-corpus replay ρ 0.02–0.2 @ ~20% of batches (naive rig-only FT: BWT −81 within 4k steps). Lit 0820 (rollout-free eval): the eval-substrate menu’s priced third tier — PolaRiS scan-to-sim (MIT, live; r=0.9 over 24 policy-env points) beats the world-model route (RoboWorld r=0.989 but n=8, no artifact, unvalidated GPT-4o judge), yet both certificates were bought with real rollouts and calibrate on DROID only; two rig-day riders banked (2–5 min workspace scan for the PolaRiS route; FACTR 2’s 10-min free-motion torque protocol). No new arm. Lit 0821 (Curse of Precision + NeuralActuator + GigaWorld-1 / WMBench): three bench inputs — precision tasks built as one task × 2–3 tolerance levels (keeps cells in the 20–80% band), with the fitted ceiling c as the headline metric and config changes reported as Δc (rig-phase instrument: c needs rollout sweeps, not pre-computable); the FACTR 2 rig-day rider SUPERSEDED — NeuralActuator’s third platform is our exact arm (force MAE 0.47–0.73 N from Feetech load registers, no current sensor; MIT code + 3 SO-101 checkpoints + teleop code verified live) → rig day logs their 46-column servo schema and gets a virtual force sensor nearly off-the-shelf; and the world-model eval tier updates — the “no artifact” objection is dead (GigaWorld-1 Apache-2.0 weights + validated VLM judge; Ctrl-World live too), a zero-rollout pre-trust replay screen runs on our corpus as-is, but its 324K “rollouts” are graded videos under replayed actions and real-policy-ranking correlation is never computed — screen ≠ certificate, calibration still costs real rollouts. Lit 0822 (PhAIL, 2605.29710, full release: data + stats code + audit tooling): the rig-day statistical protocol question answered — time-to-success CDFs (Kaplan–Meier, timeouts censored, hard failures at T=∞) + macro-KS with episode-clustered bootstrap resolve 2 of 3 close policy pairs at 25–30 episodes/cell (~4.4 timed events each) where binary tests need 600–1500; the human anchor carries ZERO statistical power (HRT is headline garnish — collect one teleop block anyway, skip it freely); keep ≥50 single-attempt trials as the budget, adopt KS-on-CDFs as the analysis; blinded same-session rotation is mandatory (a camera/tote side swap moved one model 22 pp — more than the gap under study); their 42% telemetry/operator disagreement independently replicates our 32–48% telemetry false-positive finding. Sim lane 2026-08-11 (owner pivot; sim-as-eval + SO-101 sim landscape + contact fidelity): the 100-seed sim panel’s design citations banked — SIMPLER’s recipe (controller sysid + visual matching, MMRV 0.056 / r 0.924) with its ablation ordering the work (controller gains first-order, friction values second-order — don’t tune coefficients); continuous progress separates policies at up to 70% fewer trials than binary success (2603.13616 — the owner’s distance metric is the statistically right primary); the free validation experiment = run the panel on er_60k@15k/35k/60k and check sim ordering matches the banked panel-MAE trajectory; AutoEval’s 0/50-sim-vs-47/50-real on an unvalidated policy family is the standing caveat (fidelity is per-family, resets on MolmoAct2); census says no public SO-101 sim eval with a continuous metric exists — our substrate leads the field; and a live sysid question surfaced: menagerie vs TheRobotStudio publish kp 998 vs kp 17.8 for the same STS3215, with BAM’s identified servo model as the informed prior. Sim lane 2026-08-12 0821 (owner-called GRPO design research; GRPO for our two heads, deep-read upgrade + design memo): the RL-on-sim mechanism set is now priced — AR head maps onto SimpleVLA-RL’s recipe (T=1.6, G=8, clip-higher, KL dropped) minus its binary reward, which our 0/500 success floor kills (their own 0%-base dead-start result); flow head needs Flow-GRPO’s ODE→SDE (~30 lines, exact Gaussian step logprobs, velocity-MSE KL, action-scale noise a≈0.5/K≈4 per πRL); πRL corrected: PPO+critic is its main algorithm, GRPO loses its own appendix head-to-head; trunk stays frozen (4th vote). Memo’s proposed first spend = a rollout-only signal probe (4 cells × 15 seeds × K=8, v3 frames, ≤3 GPU-h parallel-path) measuring within-group progress-reward variance + competence cost of stochastic decoding before any RL infra is built — pends owner review, sequenced after parallel-oracle → v3 rerun. Sim lane 2026-08-12 0823 (owner-called sim-improvement levers; composite shadows + fisheye lens fitting + DR schedules): three probe-priced levers banked — composite-contact-shadows (the pasted arm casts no shadow, an axis NO published pipeline measures; ConCent’s silhouette-projection recipe adapted to matching — EXECUTED 08-13, GO: the real arm’s shadow measured real+directional (contrast +0.091 CI-excludes-0, zenith 30°/azimuth 112.5°), render_style="v4" landed, paired gate closed ~10% of the remaining top-cam knn5 excess (Δknn5 CI-excludes-0, 66/100 seeds closer; AUROC 0.721→0.715); default flip = sim100 amendment 5, owner call); fit-real-lens-model (cubemap→equirect→any-lens replaces the 72° source that the wrist-periphery fix worked around; calibrate the real 130° module’s θ→r, scale-overfitting = policies use pixel scale as a distance ruler, so mis-fit lens ⇒ perceived-distance error invisible to appearance probes; RSA as train-side fix + eval-side sensitivity knob — owner-adopted 22:31Z same day over a wrist composite after the feasibility read (wrist_composite_feasibility.py: warp-fill p10 49% ⇒ T-III seam hazard; wrist stays render-only, asymmetry documented as sim100 amendment 4), queued as sim-fit-real-lens-model — EXECUTED 08-13, ITEM CLOSED: leg (a) plumb-line fit found the real lens off-center (~5σ) + more peripherally compressed; leg (b) landed the cubemap→fitted-lens wrist path (lens_model="fitted", 8 oracles); leg (c) gate read decomposed cleanly — full fit 0.667 FAIL because the CENTER term double-counts the 08-12 pose re-tune (center-only arm 0.672 reproduces the whole regression), the curve-only refit PASSES 0.523 ≤ 0.548 with Δknn5 −7.6e-07 CI-excludes-0, 96/100 frames closer (~7× the shadow GO effect), cost-neutral; default flip = sim100 amendment 6, owner call; full-fit center parked behind sim-joint-pose-lens-refit, owner-held); dr-schedule-for-sim-rl (conditional on the GRPO probe firing: one-scalar success-throttled width curriculum from the sysid’d center, throttle on progress-cm at our floor; eval rows stay at the matched center — the randomize-in-training/match-in-eval firewall, same split GreenAug-Rand vs SIMPLER Table III forces for backgrounds). Sim lane 2026-08-13 (sim-top-gap-foreground-decomposition EXECUTED + CLOSED, record): the top-cam residue (0.713, the frontier after the lens close) decomposed on the pinned 20×5 harness — real dynamic pixels pasted by the exact production arithmetic read 0.328 (= clean-repo anchor, below the 0.5 null), so the WHOLE residual gap lives in the rendered foreground pixels; arithmetic residue +0.004 AUROC (~nil), armless arms (fg→plate 0.869/plate-only 0.865) exposed a labeled confound (no-arm is itself OOD), shadow-band crop reads near-ceiling but the box covers the arm region — consistent, not a separate story. Next leg queued: sim-foreground-appearance-pass (content split clutter/arm/benchy first; the untextured clutter stand-ins are the visual prime suspect). Leg (a) EXECUTED 04:5xZ 08-13 (record): 10 paired arms off ONE hooked production instance (same physics/plate/noise per slot) — no_clutter 0.576 (−0.137, 99/100 closer), the unique class past the material bar; registered rule fires: leg (b) target = clutter appearance (mouse/mug/laptop/pcb, ~5.1% of pixels); no_arm +0.113 (armless confound, as labeled), benchy/disk ~nil; ceiling registered — clutter alone cannot reach the real-fg anchor 0.328, the arm’s pixels carry the remainder. Legs (b)+(c) EXECUTED 05:4xZ 08-13 (record): real-crop RGBA patches mined from the bank episodes’ own medians, pasted at the drawn poses by inverse fisheye warp — patched 0.556 vs v3 0.713 (−0.157, 100/100 closer), gate PASS at 3× the bar; beats the no_clutter removal ceiling 0.576 by −0.020 (75/100, CI-excl-0) — real-looking clutter outperforms clutter-free plates. Promotion into production v3/v4 pends the owner go (asked 05:40Z); arm appearance (~7% of pixels, the remaining ceiling to 0.328) is the natural next leg. Arm sub-part split EXECUTED 06:4xZ 08-13 (pre-reg, record): 14 paired arms over two exact partitions of the 96 arm-class geoms — registered rule names LINKS (88% of the arm’s keep-only delta on 6.1% px; only_links 0.705 ≈ v3 0.713); follower/leader sub-additive (~77–79% each alone) so a fix must treat both instances; record-only: no_mount is the only removal moving v3 TOWARD real (0.713→0.654, 97/100) — the 6 mount geoms are per-pixel the most sim-distinctive class, queued as a cheap rider on sim-arm-photometric-links. Photometric grade EXECUTED 02:1xZ 08-14 (pre-reg, record): real link pixels mined at recorded poses (142 frames, per-body darkness-snap) — the real arm is brighter, cool-cast, 16–18% glints vs sim’s matte flat; fitted grade (spec 1.0, shin 0.1, measured albedos) passes BOTH registered CIs: v3 0.713→0.698, only_links 0.705→0.652 ≈ the amputation ceiling without amputating; promotion pends owner go; texture + servo glint tail + white-mount material split are the registered follow-ups. Mount material split EXECUTED 04:4xZ 08-14 (pre-reg, record): byte-identical material detach frees the shared slot, mined real mount = neutral light gray [123,120,125] (white-mount finding confirmed), fit = the links’ specular ceiling; split verdict: MECHANISM decisive (only_mount 0.821→0.793, 93/100; presence now BEATS absence vs plate, 100/100 — the amputation confound reversed) but PRIMARY null (0.66% px is below the whole-frame read’s floor) → no standalone promotion; the two-flag stack reads 0.713→0.702 CI-excl-0, so the mount rides free if photometrics promotes. Wrist-view read EXECUTED 06:0xZ 08-14 (pre-reg + results, record): the wrist-side fact the promotion asks assumed — wrist-NEUTRAL: paired wrist Δknn5 −1.39e-08, CI95 [−4.53, +1.73]e-08 straddles zero (46/100); mechanically the home-pose wrist camera sees only ~230 raw px of graded surface (servo 208 / PLA 21 / mount 1), nothing for the encoder to read; no regression, no gain — the asks proceed on top-side evidence, now measured not assumed; top rider replicated the mount read’s stack delta bit-for-bit (hook path ≡ production observations); registered limitation: the 0.828 ROLLOUT-pose wrist gap stays open (needs trajectories or fresh rollouts, priced separately). Micro-texture EXECUTED 05:4xZ 08-14 (pre-reg + results, record): composite-stage screen-space grain fitted to the mined real stats (PLA local contrast 8.24 vs real 8.36, servo tail ~20% closed) — REFUTED, both registered CIs entirely ABOVE zero (v3_photo 0.698→0.751, 3/100; only_links 0.652→0.740, 0/100): the encoder reads spatial structure, not pooled statistics — statistically-matched blotch reads MORE fake than smooth. Kills composite-stage stats-matching for texture generally (a useful lens: any future appearance fix must produce structure the encoder recognizes, not match marginals); escalation queued sim-arm-surface-texture-mjspec (true UV-mapped anisotropic layer lines via recompile, physics oracles as the bar), not auto-run; the photometric grade stays the arm frontier. Escalation EXECUTED 09:2xZ 08-14 (pre-reg + results): TRUE surface-tracking bands (mjSpec recompile, 11/11 physics oracles, zero-clip tanh generator, amplitude capped at the 0.42 no-clip headroom → lc 6.43 of real 8.36) — SECOND REFUTATION, PRIMARY +3.07e-07 CI [+2.42,+3.71]e-07 (0.698→0.718): coherence was not the missing ingredient either. Surviving hypothesis: real print-layer contrast is RELIEF (shading/specular structure that moves with the light) — the classic renderer has no normal-map path, so the residual lives in light transport, not albedo; a renderer-upgrade rung would be a new design decision, priced only on owner ask. Arm-texture direction COLD; frontier unchanged. GRPO thread 2026-08-13: the signal probe EXECUTED overnight (re-scoped at the registered tripwire — cells 1/2/5 + anchors, 3.57 GPU-h; results as amendment 1) — both families clear the 0.25 cm bar (AR t=1.0 median group std 0.771 = 3.1×; t=1.6 buys 3.2× the spread at 3× the competence cost; SDE a=0.5 1.860 with cost CI including 0); the frozen rule fires: phase 2 = token-GRPO on the AR head at t=1.0, Flow-GRPO SDE second; the spread is knock-away-tailed, so the first learnable signal ≈ “don’t swat the boat.” Same-day phase-2 design memo + pre-reg DRAFT: measured rollout pace reprices the run ~5× over the 08-12 sketch (~0.75 GPU-h/step → ladder 2/15/+25 steps, ~33 GPU-h gate 35, two decision boundaries), composite reward (progress + success bonus + guard penalties, z-scored in-group), recommended trainable surface = FAST patch + text stack at 5e-6 (vision frozen), old-policy logprobs ride the existing ActionCaptureStep surface. Launch pends the owner phase-2 go (open since 08-12). Ladder executed 08-13/14: R0 STOP (VRAM + collapse at lr 5e-6), re-scoped R0-A GO (option-A patch surface: diversity survives, drift 5 orders gentler, VRAM 34 vs 76 GiB), R1-A SELF-STOPPED 03:05Z 08-14 at step 5/17 — the knock-away tripwire, fresh waves 0.41/0.36/0.31 vs the 0.167 ×3 line; eval flat-at-noise through step 4, drift gentle, NO R2-A by the frozen rule. Named finding: at lr 1e-6 the surface moves BEHAVIOR (shoving up, train success up) but not the held-out read — and shoving PAYS under the current progress reward; the reward patch (in-reward knock-away penalty), an lr/β re-price from the banked step_0004, or stopping the ladder are the owner’s boundary options (in-channel 03:1xZ, grpo-phase2-boundary-decision).
  • lit-arms #15 Literature-sourced arms — the arXiv radar; every borrowed idea cites its source, every “novel” idea gets a search first. Feeds the Papers section. PAUSED by owner steering 2026-08-10 00:23Z (“Can we pause the lit slices for now”) — 0822 was mid-flight and landed as the final slice; no 0823 queued; the standing ~20–30 min allocation is suspended until the owner re-enables it.
  • infra-hardening #18 Instrument & infra hardening — the bijou deep-dive fix queue + everything oracle-shaped; several items done, rest queued by leverage. New 2026-08-07: item 9 async checkpoint saves LANDED (owner HIGH; byte-identical oracle, ~14% wall-time payoff at the attach screen) + its checkpointing-systems lit page. New 2026-08-08: owner-steered molmo2 perf/memory deep review SHIPPED (review) — suffix attention on the MATH backend (13×/layer measured), ViT eager einsum (13×/block), act-ckpt absent from live launchers; S-bundle queued (molmo2-perf-fix-prereg, ~8–15% step expected). 2026-08-09: the box ladder FALSIFIED the bundle (results) — C −7.3% (a regression; P1 cuDNN alone −10.8%; the local microbench did not transfer to 4×DDP). Frozen <5% branch: nothing perf-claiming lands; P2 + bitwise items split to a hygiene item; P1 dead. Same-session lit (loss + mask page): CCE (2411.09009) banked as the CE escalation ladder (valid-row → two-segment lse → CCE; entry = wanting backward-chunks < 6 or batch > 12), FlexAttention banked as the dense-mask successor gated on compile (#2b) or long prefixes.

On ice — queued or parked, each with its named trigger

  • event-none-calibration #23 Event-slot none-calibration — new 2026-08-11 from the er_60k events one-off (report): on the 683 (gt: event, model: none) misses a 1-step none-ban re-decode lands the gt class 63% of the time (idle 86%, release-place 80%, occlusion 72%) — event recall is threshold-limited, not perception-limited. Named lever: a decode-time none-penalty / event-slot temperature (zero training), read against the same 8,987-frame labeled panel. Trigger: an owner ask for better event narration, or the first consumer of event strings (e.g. rollout-side anomaly flagging). Needs its own pre-reg; no page yet — the probe JSON is the record.
  • throughput-compile #2 Throughput: bucketing + compile — 2a landed; GPU A/B conditional on a widened-selection corpus (padding ceiling too small under the current recipe).
  • longer-training #3 Longer training — needs the own-baseline reference arm first. New 2026-08-09 lit 0814 (Anytime Pretraining, 2602.03702): the horizon-churn fix published — constant-LR trunk + branch decays from banked saves matches per-horizon-tuned cosine; our 40k→60k→100k restart-from-the-floor lineage is the paper’s motivating pathology; mid-run checkpoint-averaging “endpoint preview” priced as a CPU read (own pre-reg needed). Hook correction on the page: not a Defazio paper.
  • tokenizer-v3 #5 FAST tokenizer v3 — CPU refit on curated-v0 quantiles; token metrics reset; entropy/ utilization gate before any learned-VQ arm. New 2026-08-09 (DFM-VLA): MAAT’s metric-aligned embeddings (+4.4 pp for a refinement decoder) = the first measured order-preservation datum; “ablate embedding metric structure” banked as a free rider on any v3 refit. New 2026-08-09 lit 0814 (X-Tokenizer, 2606.14752): a clean external null for learned-VQ in the executable role — RVQ-no-aux loses to FAST on control (69.1 vs ~73.0) and the full tokenizer reconstructs 17% worse; its wins are auxiliary-supervision only (tokens never executed, needs a frozen 7B teacher). Gate stands; two v3 riders banked (quantile normalization confirmed; WER-under-noise probe — FAST’s BPE re-segmentation blows up 3× at σ=0.008). Lit 0819 (Action-space design): judge any encode map by decode-time noise amplification, not encode-side statistics — step-wise vs chunk-wise delta are bijective reparameterizations differing ~10pp at rollout purely through the decode map (O(k) amplification, (2k+1)/π).
  • action-space #23 Chunk-wise delta-joint — NEW 2026-08-09 from lit 0819 (Action-space design, 2602.23408, code+data verified): flow + joint-space + chunk-wise delta beats our absolute-joint cell 88.0 vs 79.6 real-robot, robust across data/compute scales; step-wise delta is the trap (never test it). Cheapest arm: delta-joint retrain, decode-to-absolute before panel scoring, offline win necessary-not-sufficient (their delta/absolute cells are decode-identical yet differ 8–15pp in rollouts — the cleanest offline↔rollout inversion warning we have). Trigger: own pre-reg + any free training window; definitive read wants the Squint relative screen.
  • stream-schedule #7 Stream-schedule re-test — enters at the short-run screen rung.
  • vocab-head #8 Shortlist/output-vocab head — VRAM lever for ar_backbone; design concretized, unbuilt.
  • data-levers #9 Data levers — state-dropout arm C answered “adopt nothing”; p=0.3 branch survives on our own branch rule only; calibrated-noise/GAP are the literature levers. New 2026-08-09: VISTA (page, 2606.04708) — physics validation of human-collected data (continuity/collision/fidelity scores predict deployment: 65% vs 0% OSR at matched grasp); banked hook: the embodiment-agnostic continuity screen is a zero-GPU read on our own corpus (per-tick displacement thresholds — a kinematic-corruption dimension orthogonal to the VLM judge). Lit 0817 (ArmnetBench): the offline↔real calibration study the panel programme wants is now specified but blocked on one artifact — their claimed 84 task–policy checkpoints are not actually on the Hub; WATCH ITEM (if they land, it’s the cheapest calibration read ever offered: our probes on their policies vs their measured success rates). Hook CLOSED 2026-08-09 (screen results): qualified null — tail 0.23%, dominated by the wrap census’s two known repos; 42 new dropout episodes far under the curation effect-size line; instrument banked as a curated_v1 intake filter. Owner MolmoAct2 deep dive 2026-08-09 (post): the survey’s corpus-delta lever mechanized — their released repo_list.json (1,222 quality-gated repos) makes the community_curated_v0 intersection a set operation, and the 16,205 re-annotated SO-100/101 instructions join onto our copies directly; owner-decision, not queued. Lit 0818 (ATHENA + Qwen-RobotManip): the curation axis splits — ATHENA validates influence functions at π-0 scale but is rollout-anchored + code-free (parked design note; warning: their demo-length heuristic landed BELOW random on real tasks), while Qwen’s 5-stage state-action filter is fully offline and mechanizable at 229h (their DA check excluded 81% of RoboMIND-UR as broken proprioception — our corpus’s hazard class); cheapest arm: DA + jerk pass, panel MAE with/without excluded episodes. Lit 0820 (FACTR 2 + Diversity + H2R): three levers in one slice — phase-weighted sampling by contact proximity gets a zero-GPU gate (Δq_d = action − state, free in every episode); velocity-debias worth +15% ≈ 2.5× data (diffusion head, never operator-ablated) opens a speed-census → panel-correlation → normalization-arm chain, with the loud caveat that velocity spread is also a chunk-MAE eval confound; the human-video lever is PARKED with a reopening condition = an ER-class embodied trunk (the live er_60k) — base-VLM init measured ~zero gain. Lit 0821 (QoQ + Curse of Precision): the curation axis gets its missing middle pole — influence scoring anchored to 10–20 held-out demos, the only pole runnable in our no-rollout regime (gains proven only on 40–50% injected failures; hard top-N with budget sensitivity, not per-episode weighting — hook corrected), cheapest arm sketched on the page (action-head-only gradients suffice per their own ablation); and a bound from the precision side — near a task’s precision ceiling the data exponent collapses (−0.19 at 4 mm), the corpus lever is clarity-filtering (aggressive 50%-SR expert c=1.27 mm vs cautious 98%-SR expert 2.35 — down-weight retry/jiggle episodes, zero-GPU detectable, composes with the QoQ pass). Lit 0822 (final slice before the owner pause; Ambient Diffusion Policy + curation-metrics pair): a NEW lever class — the flow-time band-mask (keep bad demos, ban them from mid-range noise levels; ports to rectified flow via σ̃(t)=t/(1−t), classifier-annotated offline, composes with the QoQ pass which can define its trusted/rest split; cheapest arm = zero-GPU PSD power-law check + σ_tmin distribution on our corpus); and the curation-metrics warnings measured — detection AUROC and curated-policy quality are DECOUPLED (best detector 0.804 → worst policy 13.3%; report the policy delta, never AUROC), 5/7 metrics ride episode length (rank-by-length null arm is now the beat-this baseline for every #9 scorer), velocity census demoted to coverage-only (variance scoring is the documented inversion case: entropy AUROC 0.000 on shaky-but-correct demos), continuity screen validated for its artifact regime (0.968), Δq_d gate blind-spot named (well-tracked wrong commands = small residual; see Auditing).
  • base-vs-it #10 E2B base-vs-IT swap — backbone-swap arm, pre-registered prediction ±0.2.
  • visual-grounding #11 Visual grounding arms — the open front; arch batch #1 pre-registered, arm A (img280) HELD for a fresh owner go. New 2026-08-09 lit 0812b (HiF-VLA, CVPR26): codec motion vectors (~free from stored video) + decode-stage AdaLN banked as the cheapest history-arm representation, strictly behind the aliasing-census entry condition. New 2026-08-09 lit 0813 (SA-VLA): aux-family fourth integration mode — frozen VGGT-token injection via gated cross-attention (read-only, erosion-proof under RL; +2.25 zero-shot, viewpoint-loaded); the family axis is now when the geometry is allowed to change.
  • one-step #12 Solver/Heun-gap + 1-NFE distill — SnapFlow 1-NFE student banked (holds the panel, single draw beats AR); rig fine-tune diagnosed, next rung opens with rig data (#16). New 2026-08-09: FAFM (page, 2606.20135) — flow matching over DCT coefficients (M≈K/3: 17×6 target instead of 50×6, smooth by construction, +λ‖v̇−ξ̇‖² = a weighted H¹ loss); banked as a representation option for future distill rungs (our within-chunk smoothness is already clean per SDN, so the live half is the smaller target, not the smoothing). Also fed #9 (mixed-frequency data becomes well-posed — their Prop 1 + 94%→0% π₀ collapse demo) and #16 (LDLJ jerk metric).
  • sign-convention #13 Sign-convention repair — stage 2 hit the escalation branch (3/4 reference populations not sign-consistent); parked pending a decision on the reference set.
  • async-staleness #22 Async staleness bridging — RTC-class rollout question; parked, waits on #16 (closed-loop by construction). New 2026-08-07: PAINT (2606.19774, noise-steering II page) — training-free initial-noise selection matches RTC on a chunk-50 π₀ with no gradients. New 2026-08-09 (async execution II): FASTER’s horizon-aware schedule attacks the delay itself (first action in 1 flow step of N, TTFA 1.3–3×) and tiles across batched draws — the 18-tick mean-of-10 staleness may be a scheduling artifact; DEFLECT measures RTC/BID at ≤5% for d≥5 and fixes it with stale-vs-fresh FM-DPO (restart-corrected net +1.6–2.3 pp). Arm order re-banked: measure naive-switch → HAS-on-decode → SEAM → PAINT → A2C2 → TT-RTC/DEFLECT. New 2026-08-09: the free boundary read EXECUTED — NOT a null (results): seam disagreement ≈ 1.1–1.3× model error, boundary jump 11–14× per-step motion, and the dt→0 split shows fresh noise carries a ~3.3-unit mode term that a shared noise ticket deletes entirely (2.07 vs 6.04, below even greedy AR). The direction is confirmed, with a measured target; still parked on #16 for any fix. New 2026-08-09 lit 0812b (VLA-Corrector): event-triggered truncation datum — a 40M drift monitor cutting stale chunks is +11.65 of +15.65 pp before any steering; when to cut dominates how to steer. Menu adjacency, closed-loop, parked on #16. New 2026-08-09 lit 0813: two placements, menu unchanged — AsyncVLA is NOT async execution despite the name (all correction pre-execution; filed so the title isn’t re-banked), and StreamVLA’s gate re-reasons but never cuts the chunk (complements the truncation axis; event-triggered refresh economics datum banked). New 2026-08-09 lit 0814 (VLA-FAIL, 2606.21386): our seam read published as a detector — ACC compares the previous chunk’s unexecuted suffix vs the new chunk’s prefix over the receding-horizon overlap; three deltas banked (velocity normalization, EMA α=0.9, position-dims-only) + the conformal-band recipe; and the cross-read — they fix prior noise for features but NOT for ACC’s actions, so our shared noise ticket would tighten their own detector (the ~3.3-unit fresh-noise mode term is their undecomposed noise floor). Lit 0816 (ActionCache): real-SO-101 anchor banked — π0.5-class VLA ≈ 102 ms/decision end-to-end, VLM+embed ≈ 47 ms structurally unskippable (their 40× head speedup nets 1.66× end-to-end) — trunk overlap, not decode acceleration, is the lever. Lit 0817 (Reflex + Legato, complements): the serving stack now has named layers — trunk-KV reuse within a chunk’s ODE loop is exact and free (timestep invariance, ours by construction; check our rollout path actually does it), async thread split is the measured latency lever (−47–54% reaction, stall 100%→0%; stall rate adopted as an instrument), and the chunk-transition slot is a two-rung ladder: RTC (free) → Legato (fine-tune, −20% completion time vs RTC matched; objective change = own arm, bakes in the solver step count). Lit 0819 (Squint): the #16 blocker softens — the SO-101 twin gives deterministic-seed closed-loop rollouts on trivial compute, and the banked arm order becomes success-rate deltas as relative screens (domain gap held constant across arms); still needs own pre-reg + a sim-adaptation sanity arm.

Answered — banked results