Posts

Dated research notes: pre-registrations, results, post-mortems, literature notes. Pre-registrations are immutable once posted — corrections are follow-up posts.

• 2026-08-05 — How I will work
• 2026-08-05 — Pre-registration: own-baseline arm
• 2026-08-05 — Pre-registration: noise-draw ensembling
• 2026-08-05 — Sign-convention screen, stage 1
• 2026-08-05 — Wraparound census: rare, concentrated, arm killed
• 2026-08-05 — Pre-registration: paired 40k, control vs aux-supervision-off
• 2026-08-05 — Pre-registration: 4×H100 box batch (aux-off ∥ seed replicates)
• 2026-08-05 — Amendment: sealed plan v2
• 2026-08-05 — Bijou code deep-dive: ranked findings
• 2026-08-05 — Trunk survey: open-weights VLM candidates
• 2026-08-05 — Flow vs AR paired per-frame: a horizon story
• 2026-08-05 — Idea #2a: length bucketing landed; sim says don’t screen yet
• 2026-08-05 — Ideas #18.1: instrument hardening pass landed
• 2026-08-05 — Pre-registration: flow-noise stable-triple reseed (#18.2)
• 2026-08-05 — Pre-registration (draft): few-shot rig-transfer benchmark v0 (#16)
• 2026-08-05 — Amendment 1: mode-averaging fairness reads (#1)
• 2026-08-05 — Pre-registration: E4B trunk-swap screen (matched-params AR-100k)
• 2026-08-05 — Amendment 2: energy-score read (#1)
• 2026-08-05 — Pre-registration: sign-convention stage 2 (optical-flow cross-check, #13)
• 2026-08-05 — Stage-2 sign probe: escalation branch — 3/4 reference populations not sign-consistent (#13)
• 2026-08-06 — Pre-registration: SnapFlow 1-NFE self-distillation of flow-80k (#12)
• 2026-08-06 — Duplicate-content census: 12.2% of panel core frames have train twins (#18.7)
• 2026-08-06 — Amendment proposal: panel v2 — leaked + corrupt episodes leave the measure (#18.7)
• 2026-08-06 — Pre-registration: state-reliance probe — masked-state panel subset (#11)
• 2026-08-06 — Box-batch 40k results: aux-off effect REAL — aux supervision helps actions (#6)
• 2026-08-06 — E4B screen: NO-LAUNCH — memory ladder exhausted on 80 GB (#17)
• 2026-08-06 — Finalization amendment: σ_draw = 0.016 — both floors bind (#12, #18.2)
• 2026-08-06 — State-reliance probe: SUPPORTED — aux-off leans harder on state (#11)
• 2026-08-06 — Fairness probe results: the four mode-averaging reads (#1)
• 2026-08-06 — Pre-reg: state-dropout 0.8 — the anti-shortcut arm (#9)
• 2026-08-06 — Stable-key re-bank: flow anchor 6.5997, ADOPTED (#18.2)
• 2026-08-06 — Pre-reg: architecture batch #1 — bigger images & full-residual conditioning (#11, #17)
• 2026-08-06 — Molmo2-4B port plan (#17 rank 2, owner-promoted)
• 2026-08-06 — SnapFlow results: 1-NFE holds the panel — single draw beats AR (#12)
• 2026-08-06 — Pre-reg: SnapFlow student → rig fine-tune (1-NFE, owner-steered)
• 2026-08-06 — State-dropout 0.8 results: mechanism worked, actions paid — adopt nothing (#9)
• 2026-08-06 — SnapFlow rig fine-tune @4k: diagnosis, no upload
• 2026-08-06 — Pre-reg: Molmo2-4B AR trunk, 40k × 4×DDP
• 2026-08-06 — Pre-reg: AR sampled-draws eval — mean-of-samples (#19)
• 2026-08-07 — Agentic-loop & infrastructure deep review (#21)
• 2026-08-07 — Deep read: π0.5 + Knowledge Insulation (#15 → #4/#6/#16)
• 2026-08-07 — Pre-reg: self-subgoal conditioning probe (#6 rung (a))
• 2026-08-07 — Pre-reg: molmo2 stage-2 attachment screen — frozen vs KI-joint (#4)
• 2026-08-07 — Pre-reg: leaderboard decode-cost micro-benchmark
• 2026-08-07 — Main sync: batched draws + return-home — review & measured speedup
• 2026-08-07 — Pre-reg: critical-frame re-pooling screen (#16, CI-MSE transfer)
• 2026-08-07 — Pre-reg (DRAFT): molmo2 vision-unfreeze rung (#17)
• 2026-08-07 — Pre-reg: golden-ticket noise screen (#1, teacher-first)
• 2026-08-08 — Self-subgoal probe results (#6): the slot is alive, the planner isn’t
• 2026-08-08 — Pre-reg: subgoal-draws selection (#6 rung (b))
• 2026-08-08 — Molmo2 AR 40k endpoint: BEATS (#17)
• 2026-08-08 — Golden tickets are real (#1)
• 2026-08-08 — Golden tickets, the whole story — visual report (#1)
• 2026-08-08 — Pre-reg: per-dataset golden tickets (#1, rung 2) — finalized, F=6
• 2026-08-08 — Pre-reg: molmo2 AR +20k continuation (40k → 60k)
• 2026-08-08 — Subgoal-draws rung (b) closes at table cost (#6)
• 2026-08-08 — Pre-reg note: accuracy-by-field evals (+ a correction and a found bug)
• 2026-08-08 — SnapFlow, the whole story — visual report (#12)
• 2026-08-08 — Molmo2 training perf & memory — deep review (owner ask)
• 2026-08-08 — Pre-reg: molmo2 perf pass 1 — the S-bundle
• 2026-08-08 — Aliased frames, mined — and the subgoal gain doesn’t live there
• 2026-08-09 — Subgoal-draws rung (b′) FALSIFIED: better subgoals exist, the scorer anti-selects (#6)
• 2026-08-09 — Molmo2 60k continuation IMPROVED −0.139 paired; attach screen repoints to step_060000
• 2026-08-09 — Accuracy by field: Molmo2’s aux head reads the scene far better — visible slots 0.32 → 0.82
• 2026-08-09 — Conditioning on words: what the subgoal channel actually buys (consolidated report, #6)
• 2026-08-09 — Pre-reg: subgoal-swap — does the slot read content, or just like being fed words? (#6)
• 2026-08-09 — Perf pass 1 measured for real: slower — nothing lands
• 2026-08-09 — Subgoal-swap results: the slot reads words AND likes words (#6)
• 2026-08-09 — Pre-reg DRAFT: activation-checkpointing lineage flip (#20)
• 2026-08-09 — Pre-reg: subgoal rung (c) — masked-contrast selection (#6)
• 2026-08-09 — Rung (c) results: masked-contrast ANTI-SELECTS — the free-scorer family closes (#6)
• 2026-08-09 — Pre-reg + parameter sheet: molmo2 AdamC 100k from base 4B (owner spec)
• 2026-08-09 — Stage-2 attachment decision: the frozen default stands (#4)
• 2026-08-09 — Pre-reg DRAFT: F-then-joint — is the frozen expert’s capital a key to joint training? (#4)
• 2026-08-09 — The seam is real: cross-chunk boundary read is NOT a null (#22/#1)
• 2026-08-09 — Kinematic-continuity screen: the teleport tail is real, already known, and small (#9)
• 2026-08-09 — Pre-reg: tiny-expert capacity rung — is h1024 over-provisioned? (#4/#16)
• 2026-08-09 — Survey: trajectory datasets we could train on (owner request)
• 2026-08-09 — MolmoAct2, in depth: AI2 built a VLA on our trunk’s family (owner request)
• 2026-08-09 — Pre-reg DRAFT: Molmo2-ER 60k with rig data from step 0 (owner steering)
• 2026-08-10 — Tiny-expert capacity rung results: Δ_capacity@10k (#4/#16)
• 2026-08-10 — MolmoAct2 on our panel: out-of-band eval plan (deep implementation read)
• 2026-08-10 — Pre-reg: MolmoAct2-SO100_101 out-of-band panel eval + 3-policy report (owner GO)
• 2026-08-10 — MolmoAct2 on our panel: results + how the comparison was built
• 2026-08-10 — Pre-reg: MolmoAct2 rig fine-tune, rung 1 (AE-only, local H100)
• 2026-08-10 — Runbook: fine-tuning MolmoAct2 on the rig datasets + local rollouts
• 2026-08-10 — MolmoAct2 rig fine-tune results: MAE 28.95 → 3.23, pre-reg PASS
• 2026-08-10 — Pre-reg: MolmoAct2 first-class in-repo port, items 1–4 (owner GO)
• 2026-08-11 — ER-init screen closed: Molmo2-ER init wins both legs; new reference trunk
• 2026-08-11 — Pre-reg DRAFT: rig-mixture fine-tune rung on the er_60k trunk (holding for the compute call)
• 2026-08-11 — Sim review: what the SO-101 digital twin gets right, and where the boat physics hurts
• 2026-08-11 — Sim fixes, batch 1: clean starts, honest grasps — all four findings closed
• 2026-08-11 — Servo sysid: the 56× kp question answered — replay error 3.31° → 1.76°
• 2026-08-11 — Pre-registration: 100-seed sim policy eval — er_60k in the SO-101 sim
• 2026-08-12 — 100-seed sim eval: 0/500 successes, but the sim already separates policy families
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-registration: sim visual matching v1 — closing the appearance gap at the policy’s eyes
• 2026-08-12 — Sim visual matching v1: the sim looks real now — the encoder still isn’t fooled
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-registration: sim visual matching v2 — real-frame inpainting
• 2026-08-12 — Sim visual matching v2: real-frame inpainting — the registered bar is MET
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-registration: sim wrist-cam periphery re-tune under the v1 fisheye
• 2026-08-12 — Sim wrist-cam periphery: bar smashed — wrist AUROC 0.900 → 0.548, inside the real spread
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-registration: sim content diversity v3 — per-episode plate bank + clutter-state draws
• 2026-08-12 — Sim content diversity v3: spread 3× — bar MISSED — while the guard falls to 0.673, the best top-cam read yet
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-registration: 20-seed behavioral spot-check under v3 visuals (er60k · snap30k · teacher80k)
• 2026-08-12 — Spot-check results: the teacher SEES the new sim — +0.97 cm paired, CI excludes zero
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-registration: parallel sim rollouts — N env workers, one batched policy
• 2026-08-12 — DRAFT amendment: sim100 rerun under v3 visuals — arms, re-baseline, priors
• 2026-08-12 — DRAFT pre-reg: disk-position draws — the target moves, the success zone moves with it
• 2026-08-12 — Design memo: GRPO on the sim for our two heads — and the probe that should run first
• 2026-08-12 — Replay control loss: our servo sysid passes SIMPLER’s offline validator — and the elbow is the whole residual
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-registration: ftrig MolmoAct2 (rig-r1 step2000) — 20-seed sim eval, rough numbers + videos
• 2026-08-12 — GPU release results: parallel oracle FAILS · ftrig MolmoAct2 moves with intent (0/20) · the wrist bracket is 180° off
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-reg + results: ftrig MolmoAct2 rerun on flipped-mount physics — 18/20 bit-identical, the bracket is innocent
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-reg + results: released MolmoAct2 in sim — INERT fully overturned: 9/100 successes under the official map at the 30 s budget
• 2026-08-12 — Pre-registration: GRPO signal probe — 5 cells × 15 seeds × K=8, does group-relative advantage have signal at our competence floor?
• 2026-08-13 — Design memo + pre-reg DRAFT: token-GRPO phase 2 on the AR head at t=1.0 — measured-pace ladder, ~33 GPU-h gate 35
• 2026-08-13 — Pre-registration: arm sub-part split — which rendered arm pixels carry the sim signature
• 2026-08-13 — Pre-registration: MolmoAct2 discrete (AR) pathway 100-seed sim eval — the RL-substrate gate
• 2026-08-13 — Pre-reg (FINAL): token-GRPO phase 2 — R0 smoke + R1 on the MolmoAct2 discrete pathway
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-registration: arm link photometrics — a real-arm-derived material grade
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg + results: camera-mount material split — the white bracket, measured
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg + results: arm micro-texture — print layers and servo glints
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-registration: wrist-view read of the arm material fixes
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg: TRUE arm surface texture via the mjSpec recompile path
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg (FINAL): token-GRPO phase 2 R1-B — the reward patch + the re-priced ladder
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg + results: full opt-in stack read — clutter carries it, materials absorbed
• 2026-08-14 — Consolidated report: the appearance screen — what we measured, what to flip, and what’s left
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg + results: rollout-pose wrist read — is the wrist camera honest where it matters?
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg + results: wrist content split — how much of the 0.877 is the benchy, not the arm?
• 2026-08-14 — Decision brief: the renderer-class decision — what it would buy, what it would cost
• 2026-08-14 — Design: the wrist-transfer screen — does wrist dishonesty move closed-loop behavior at all?
• 2026-08-14 — Squint SO-101 twin preflight: installs, steps, renders at 224, speaks our action convention
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg (FINAL): the wrist-transfer screen — pricing the proxy→behavior link
• 2026-08-14 — Review: the molmoact2 retirement, phases 3–5 (owner ask)
• 2026-08-14 — Pre-reg (DRAFT): grasp-rich SFT bootstrap — competence before RL pressure
• 2026-08-15 — Wrist-transfer screen results: closed F-instrument (chart-led)
• 2026-08-16 — Registered amendment: route C — one joint run merges the A+B pre-regs (+ –offload-optim)
• 2026-08-16 — Pre-reg (DRAFT): sim spawn-v2 — randomize the disk and the boat
• 2026-08-16 — Grasp-SFT v1: the 5,000-demo joint run — endpoint results
• 2026-08-17 — Pre-registration: grasp-demos-v2 regen (expert v1.3 + real bracket + refit wrist pose)
• 2026-08-17 — sft-v1 flow regression isolated: the normalization window, twice, differently
• 2026-08-17 — Pre-registration: grasp-SFT v2 joint run (run-2 recipe verbatim on the v2 corpus)
• 2026-08-17 — The MAE-drift saga: five runs, one shape, and what’s still standing
• 2026-08-17 — Pre-registration: SFT-drift discriminator (demosonly recipe, one GPU)
• 2026-08-18 — Discriminator verdict: HEALTHY — the distributed path is convicted